Rumen Radev leads polls ahead of Bulgaria’s April 19 election

Rumen Radev, Bulgaria’s former president, leads polling ahead of the April 19 parliamentary election, and the Polymarket contract for him becoming the next prime minister is at 88.5% YES, up from 62% a week ago.

Radev’s polling lead and his potential absorption of pro-Russian nationalist voters have driven the 15-point surge in the next prime minister of Bulgaria market. With three days until the election, the market’s term structure shows no significant spread, which points to traders expecting a quick coalition resolution.

Daily face value trades sit at $8,274, with actual USDC volume at $7,401. Moving the price 5 points requires $5,150, indicating a thick order book. The largest single move was an 8-point drop at 1:01 PM, likely from a large sell order that briefly pushed the price from 91% to 83%.

Radev’s anti-corruption platform and promises to dismantle what he calls the “mafia state” have traction with voters after years of political instability in Bulgaria, which has held seven parliamentary elections since 2021. At 89¢, buying YES pays $1 if he takes office, a 1.12x return. The bet depends on Radev securing a coalition agreement and receiving a formal nomination.

Watch for election day results and coalition talks. A coalition deal with GERB-SDS or a strong plurality win would clear Radev’s path to the prime minister’s office.

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