Russia’s oil exports slump as Ukraine drone strikes hammer production infrastructure

Russia’s oil machine is breaking down, and Ukraine’s drone fleet is holding the wrench. A sustained campaign of long-range drone strikes against Russian refineries, ports, and storage facilities has carved deep into the country’s ability to process and export crude, with secondary oil processing capacity falling by an estimated 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day year-over-year by May.

The damage has forced Russia to cut crude production by roughly 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day as of April, pushing total output down to 9.009 million bpd by May. That marks six consecutive months of declining production.

The paradox of broken refineries

When refineries go offline, the crude that would normally flow into them has to go somewhere. In Russia’s case, it went to export terminals.

Western-port oil loadings actually surged to 2.5 million bpd in May, a 15% jump from the prior month and the highest level in eight months. Crude that couldn’t be refined domestically was simply shipped abroad instead.

Projections point to a sharp reversal, with shipments expected to drop to roughly 1.7 million bpd in June. Russia also appears to be redirecting some crude back toward domestic refining in an effort to address a growing fuel crisis at home.

Fires, rationing, and $2.3 billion in losses

Ukrainian officials estimated that drone attacks in March alone caused approximately $2.3 billion in revenue losses for Russia.

Refinery fires and blackouts have disrupted fuel distribution across multiple regions. By May, some areas had resorted to purchase caps and fuel rationing.

The geographic scope of the strikes has expanded as well, with attacks reaching as far as Tatarstan—roughly 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The intensification from March to May coincided with rising global oil prices.

A structural shift in the energy war

Strikes on refineries began in earnest in 2024. The current wave appears to be outpacing Russia’s ability to repair, with strikes hitting the same facilities repeatedly and expanding to new targets before old ones are fully restored.

A drop from 2.5 million bpd to 1.7 million bpd in western-port loadings within a single month would represent a 32% decline, erasing the temporary export bump that masked the true depth of the production crisis.

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