S&P 500 forecast to rise just 1.3% to 7,620 by year-end 2026, Reuters poll finds

Wall Street’s best guess for where the S&P 500 ends 2026 is, well, basically where it is right now. Plus a little.

A Reuters poll of 47 market strategists, analysts, and portfolio managers pegs the index at 7,620 by December 31, 2026. That’s a gain of 1.3% from the May 26 close of 7,519.12.

What’s holding the market back

Respondents flagged an ongoing Middle East conflict, escalating energy prices, and persistent inflation as the primary headwinds likely to restrain further upside.

The earlier consensus forecast for the S&P 500 in 2026 sat around 7,500. So the median target has nudged slightly higher to 7,620, suggesting sentiment has improved marginally, not dramatically.

Where the big banks stand

Goldman Sachs is holding a year-end target of 7,600, essentially in line with the poll median and just 1.1% above the current level. Morgan Stanley is slightly more bullish at 7,800, implying roughly a 3.7% gain from the May 26 close.

Deutsche Bank takes the most optimistic stance among the three at 8,000. That would represent a gain of about 6.4% from recent levels.

Looking further out, the poll projects the S&P 500 reaching 8,050 by mid-2027.

What this means for investors

Energy stocks present an interesting paradox. Rising energy prices are cited as a headwind for the broader index, but they’re a direct tailwind for energy producers.

For crypto-adjacent investors watching traditional equity markets, equity risk appetite has historically shown a positive correlation with digital asset performance. The poll itself did not include discussions on crypto assets.

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