1 hour ago
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on hopes for US-Iran negotiations. The Polymarket contract for the S&P 500 opening higher on April 24 sits at 99.9% YES, up from 65% a day ago.
The April 24 contract spiked 23 points at 6:38 PM, with $186,533 in face value and $120,672 in USDC volume over the past 24 hours. The speed and size of the move point to traders pricing in diplomatic progress, or at least no immediate escalation.
The optimism traces to the potential for renewed US-Iran negotiations, even as a dual-blockade scenario persists in the Strait of Hormuz. Record equity closes suggest traders believe a diplomatic path forward is likely, which would ease geopolitical pressure and help stabilize oil markets.
With YES shares priced at 99¢, the market is near-unanimous on a higher open. At this price, traders are betting heavily that diplomatic efforts continue or that US-Iran relations don’t deteriorate further before the bell.
Watch for announcements on US-Iran talks, particularly any confirmation of a second negotiation round. Jerome Powell’s comments on monetary policy could also move sentiment, especially if dovish signals coincide with geopolitical de-escalation.
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