Scott Bessent predicts ceasefire agreement with Iran could come soon

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on August 4 that the United States and Iran could reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, possibly within days. The announcement sent US crude oil prices plunging nearly 6%, falling below $76 per barrel as traders priced in the possibility of a major de-escalation in a conflict that has choked one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors.

Bessent described a “chance” for a deal that would restore “freedom of movement” through the strait without tolls. Hundreds of commercial vessels have been stalled waiting to transit the waterway, and roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption typically passes through it.

What’s on the table

The negotiations center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. The current disruption follows US and Israel launching strikes against Iran on February 28.

This isn’t the first attempt at a resolution. A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 was supposed to reopen the strait for 60 days, giving both sides breathing room. It collapsed in July over disagreements about shipping routes.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has referenced ongoing discussions mediated by Oman, focused on increasing short-term shipping volumes through the strait. President Trump has suggested talks are progressing. Bessent indicated potential deal outcomes could materialize by August 5 or 6.

Iran’s version of events

Iranian officials have dismissed the idea that direct negotiations are even taking place. The US position is bolstered by what Bessent and other officials describe as the degradation of Iranian military capabilities following months of strikes.

What the oil market is saying

The nearly 6% drop in US crude prices to below $76 per barrel on August 4 reflects two simultaneous bets: that a deal would unlock a flood of previously stranded oil shipments, and that the broader conflict trajectory is bending toward de-escalation. Oil markets have been operating with a substantial risk premium baked in since the February strikes.

If an agreement actually holds, shipping costs, insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Gulf, and refined product prices have all been elevated by the Hormuz disruption and would see relief. Elevated energy costs have been feeding into inflation figures throughout 2026, complicating central bank calculations about rate policy.

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