SEC’s Appeal Odds Spike as XRP Price Braces for 15% Crash

In a recent development surrounding the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has agreed to Ripple’s stay request. This move has opened the room for speculation. However, the question remains: Will the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appeal? Will XRP price crash or continue its ascent? 

Ripple’s September 4 Stay filing

XRP Price Slips Below Key Support as SEC’s Appeal Odds Increase

On the daily chart, XRP price has slipped below the yearly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $0.5614. This development could increase the chances of a steep correction as the SEC’s appeal odds spike.

Has SEC’s Appeal Odds Increased After Accepting Ripple’s Stay?

The September 4 filing from Ripple’s legal team showed that the US SEC had agreed to the Stay request on the $125 million fine. In turn, the prosecutor proposed Ripple place $139 million, roughly 111% of the initial judgment amount of $125 million. This amount should be placed in the bank account until a month after the time to appeal expires, or there’s an appeal.

What is a Stay request?

A stay is a legal maneuver that temporarily halts or suspends a court’s judgment or ruling. In this case, Ripple has requested a stay of the monetary portion of the August 7 judgment, which requires them to pay a $125 million fine.

Why did Ripple request a stay & why did the SEC agree?

Ripple’s request could be as simple as to preserve assets. Another reason for this request could be that it would give Ripple time to strengthen its case and leverage over the SEC. On the other hand, the SEC must have agreed to Ripple’s request as it would allow them to preserve capital and improve their argument before filing an appeal. 

Pro-XRP Lawyer Increases SEC Appeal Odds

Regarding the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, pro-XRP lawyer Fred Rispoli stated on X that “odds have increased.” He adds that while the stay request will put 111% of the monetary judgment into a trust, it does not “guarantee” an appeal.

Rispoli stated that this agreement to Ripple’s Stay request is “SEC being evasive to Ripple lawyers.” The lawyer, however, mentions that while this move from the prosecutor does not confirm with certainty that the SEC will appeal, it has increased the odds. To be precise, Risipoli says there is a 60% chance that the SEC will appeal.

IMO 60/40 in favor of appeal.

— Fred Rispoli (@freddyriz) September 4, 2024

XRP Price Fumbles Amid SEC Appeal Odds

The daily chart shows that the XRP price flipped the yearly VWAP support at $0.5614 into a resistance level. This level coincided with the daily support level of $0.5560, making this recent breakdown pivotal. 

If this bearish momentum continues, investors can expect a 10% correction to the next key support level of $0.5033, the lower limit of the yearly VWAP.  If buyers fail to defend this level, investors can expect Ripple price to reach the $0.4696 foothold, which has supported the remittance token over the past 500 days. This move would constitute a 15% crash.

XRP/USDT 1-day chart

A quick flip of the yearly VWAP’s $0.5614 level into a support floor would alleviate the bearish momentum for XRP price. Such a development could see Ripple bulls catalyze a 10% move to VWAP’s upper limit of $0.6196.

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