Short sellers gain $15.5B as SpaceX stock crashes 27% in July

SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) is navigating one of its most turbulent stretches since the IPO. Shares have shed roughly 27% in July alone, falling well below the $135 IPO price. The daily chart paints a clear bearish picture, and structural damage overhead is substantial.

SPCX — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Key takeaways

• SPCX closed at $118.24 on July 23, trading roughly $19–$24 below all major daily exponential moving averages.
• Short sellers have accumulated an estimated $15.5 billion in unrealized gains as the stock retreats from post-IPO highs, per Ortex Technologies data cited by Reuters.
• The daily lower Bollinger Band at $110.12 is the critical support floor; a breakdown below it would confirm an extension of the decline.
• A credible bullish reversal requires reclaiming the daily EMA20 at $137.24, representing a roughly 16% recovery from current levels.
• Google disclosed a $94.1 billion SpaceX stake in a Q2 filing, with roughly $80 billion subject to short-term selling restrictions.

Daily Timeframe: The Structural Bear Case for SpaceX Stock

SPCX’s daily chart confirms a firmly bearish structure. The stock closed at $118.24 on July 23, well below all major exponential moving averages. The EMA20 sits at $137.24, the EMA200 at $138.84, and the EMA50 at $142.32. Price is trading roughly $19–$24 below those levels. That is not a minor technical gap. It represents a firm ceiling of distributed resistance built since the post-IPO peak.

Momentum Indicators Signal Expanding Weakness

The daily RSI at 42.26 confirms weak momentum without quite reaching oversold territory. The reading shows the market is not panicking to an extreme. However, sellers remain clearly in control. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram deepens the concern. The MACD line stands at -9.04 against a signal of -5.19, producing a histogram of -3.84. Bearish momentum is not only present — it is expanding.

Bollinger Bands and Key Pivot Levels

The Bollinger Bands on the daily frame offer some nuance. The lower band sits at $110.12, with a mid band at $142.95. Notably, the July 23 low of $110.85 came very close to testing the band’s floor. Price bounced from that zone, which is noteworthy. Still, trading near the lower band in a downtrend is not automatically bullish. It can simply reflect a brief technical pause before the next leg lower. The daily ATR of $8.43 underlines elevated volatility. Daily swings of this magnitude leave little room for positioning error.

Daily pivot analysis places support at $113.21 and resistance at $120.91. The pivot point itself sits at $115.88. The fact that price closed above both the pivot and R1 on July 23 is modestly constructive on a short-term basis. However, it does not reverse the broader structural damage.

Short Sellers Pile In — And They’re Winning

The fundamental backdrop reinforces the bearish technical narrative. Short sellers have accumulated an estimated $15.5 billion in unrealized gains as SPCX retreats from post-IPO highs. This data comes from Ortex Technologies and was cited by Reuters. The position carries two implications. First, bearish conviction in the market is real and well-funded. Second, any sufficiently strong catalyst could trigger a sharp short-covering rally. This introduces meaningful two-way risk.

On the institutional side, Google disclosed a $94.1 billion SpaceX stake in a Q2 filing. Roughly $80 billion of that position is subject to short-term selling restrictions. Another $14.1 billion is locked up through the third quarter of 2027. This overhang of restricted stock is a structural factor worth monitoring. It limits near-term liquidity risk from that specific holder. However, the sheer scale of the position means eventual unlocks will matter to the market.

Separately, ARK Investment Management — led by Cathie Wood — has reportedly added to its SPCX position. The move signals long-term conviction from a high-profile growth investor. The market has so far shown little enthusiasm in response.

Hourly Structure: A Bearish Regime With a Cautious Spark

The 1-hour chart reinforces the daily bearish bias, though with one small caveat. The hourly regime remains classified as bearish. Price trades below the 1H EMA50 at $125.66 and far below the 1H EMA200 at $145.42. The 1H RSI of 43.7 mirrors the subdued momentum seen on the daily frame. However, the 1H MACD histogram has just turned slightly positive at +0.24. The MACD line at -2.97 has crossed above its signal at -3.21. This is a very early and tentative sign that selling pressure may be losing momentum intraday. It does not change the directional bias. But it does suggest the selling pace could be slowing. The 1H ATR of $2.49 indicates intraday movement remains active, consistent with the volatile environment.

Hourly pivot resistance sits at $119.22. SPCX was trading near $118.28 at the close of the 15:30 candle. Proximity to that resistance level is a near-term test. A clean break and hold above $119.22 would be a micro-positive. A rejection there, on the other hand, would reinforce the broader downtrend narrative.

15-Minute Frame: Execution Context Only

The 15-minute chart offers a more encouraging short-term picture. However, this timeframe carries weight only for timing purposes. The 15m RSI has climbed to 61.09, showing genuine near-term momentum. The MACD histogram is at +0.43. The MACD line has crossed above its signal into positive territory. Meanwhile, price has pushed above both the 15m EMA20 at $116.25 and the EMA50 at $117.69. In isolation, this looks constructive. In context, it represents a short-term bounce within a multi-week downtrend.

The 15m EMA200 at $126.16 remains a significant overhead obstacle. This is consistent with the compression seen across all timeframes. The 15m ATR of $1.02 reflects tight short-term volatility. It is a momentary calm within the broader storm.

Bullish Scenario: What Would Change the Story

A credible bullish reversal for SpaceX stock would require more than a single-session bounce. SPCX must reclaim and hold above key levels to shift the narrative. Specifically, the stock would need to reclaim the daily EMA20 at $137.24. That would represent a roughly 16% recovery from recent closing prices. A sustained move back through the $135 IPO price would carry symbolic and technical significance. It could potentially trigger short-covering from the $15.5 billion short interest pool.

On the fundamental side, a positive operational catalyst could shift market sentiment. A major contract announcement or a successful high-profile mission would help. The long-term bull case around missions to Mars and continued Starlink expansion remains intact as a narrative. The question is whether the market is willing to price that ambition at current multiples after a brutal drawdown.

Bearish Scenario: What Would Confirm the Downtrend

The bearish case for SpaceX stock is already well-supported by price action and technical indicators. A breakdown below key support would confirm further downside. A failure to hold above the daily lower Bollinger Band near $110.12 would open the door to a deeper decline. The July 23 intraday low almost touched that level. A retest followed by a breakdown would signal that even technical support is giving way.

Furthermore, the stock has already fallen for seven consecutive sessions through Monday, July 22. It dropped 3.3% to $119.85 in that session alone. Continued deterioration in the macro or sector environment could accelerate selling pressure. Any unlock of the large institutional positions described in Google’s Q2 filing would add to it. The daily MACD diverging further into negative territory would confirm that bearish momentum is structurally intact rather than fading.

Positioning, Volatility, and the Road Ahead for SPCX

SPCX sits at a technically damaged but potentially oversold juncture. The weight of evidence favors sellers until key levels are reclaimed. The daily bias is firmly bearish, with all major EMAs well above current price. MACD momentum is still deepening. The 1H frame echoes that bearish structure. However, it does offer the faintest early signal that selling velocity may be slowing. The 15m bounce adds short-term tactical interest but changes nothing structurally.

With a daily ATR of $8.43 and massive short interest overhang, two-way volatility risk is high. Any attempt to position long should be sized accordingly. Chasing further downside after a 27% monthly decline carries its own risks. Until SPCX reclaims the $135–$137 zone with conviction, the weight of evidence remains with the sellers.

FAQ

Is SpaceX stock publicly traded?

SpaceX stock trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker SPCX. The stock went public in June at an IPO price of $135. However, shares have since fallen well below that level amid sustained selling pressure.

What are the key support levels for SPCX?

The immediate and most critical support sits at the daily lower Bollinger Band near $110.12. This level was nearly tested during the July 23 session when SPCX touched an intraday low of $110.85. Pivot analysis places additional support at $113.21.

What would signal a bullish reversal for SpaceX stock?

A credible bullish reversal would require SPCX to reclaim and hold above the daily EMA20 at $137.24. That represents a roughly 16% recovery from July 23 closing levels. A sustained move back above the $135 IPO price would also carry significant technical and symbolic weight, potentially triggering short-covering.

How large is the short interest in SpaceX stock?

Short sellers have accumulated an estimated $15.5 billion in unrealized gains as SPCX has retreated from its post-IPO highs. This data comes from Ortex Technologies and was cited by Reuters, confirming substantial bearish conviction in the market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or cryptocurrency. The analysis provided is not indicative of future results. Investing in crypto assets and financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decision.

Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.