Solana (SOL) Price: Bearish Divergence Challenges $130 Level as ETF Odds Reach 90%

TLDR

• Solana recently experienced a correction after reaching an all-time high of $295
• A bearish divergence has emerged on SOL’s weekly chart, testing critical support levels
• ETF speculation continues with prediction markets showing 90% approval odds
• Technical analysis shows SOL price at a crucial $109-$130 support zone
• Analysts project potential targets of $180-$200 if support holds and momentum builds

Solana (SOL) finds itself at a critical juncture after falling from its recent all-time high of $295. The cryptocurrency is now testing key support levels as traders closely monitor technical indicators to determine its next move.

The past few months have been a rollercoaster for SOL holders. After reaching new heights just three months ago, the altcoin has faced increased volatility and downward pressure.

Market experts have identified a bearish divergence on SOL’s weekly chart. This pattern suggests weakening momentum despite previous price increases and has raised concerns about further downside risk.

Currently, SOL is testing horizontal support that has held over the past year. This support coincides with the Fibonacci 0.618 level at around $117, creating a critical zone that must hold to prevent deeper drops.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 40, a level that has previously served as strong support for SOL. Traders are watching this indicator closely for signs of a potential reversal.

ETF Speculation Driving Bullish Sentiment

Despite technical concerns, excitement continues to build around a potential Solana ETF. This development could dramatically change SOL’s market dynamics.

Prediction markets are now pricing a 90% chance of a Solana ETF becoming reality. If approved, this could unlock substantial institutional investment and drive a new wave of adoption.

Solana Price on CoinGecko

The ETF catalyst mirrors what happened with Bitcoin’s ETF launch. Analysts believe approval could propel SOL toward the $180-$200 range, potentially setting new all-time highs.

Adding to the bullish case, the current administration has shown openness to adding US-based coins to strategic reserves. This political support might benefit Solana, especially after Trump’s own meme coin launched on the Solana blockchain.

Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization presents another growth avenue for Solana. With the RWA market potentially worth $240 trillion, Solana’s fast transactions and low fees make it a strong contender in this space.

Technical Analysis Points to Crucial Decision Point

Solana’s price action suggests we’re approaching a pivotal moment. The $109-$130 range has emerged as a key battleground between bulls and bears.

Recent corrections have brought SOL into the 61.8%-88.7% Fibonacci retracement zone. This area historically attracts buyers and could serve as a launching pad for a relief rally.

If support holds, analysts project a short-term move toward $135-$145. However, a breakdown below $105 would confirm bearish control and likely trigger deeper corrections.

The Elliott Wave pattern suggests the next 24-48 hours will be decisive for SOL’s trajectory. Market participants are closely watching for confirmation of either a bounce or breakdown.

#Polymarket is now pricing in the chances of a #Solana #ETF approval at just under 90%.

Soon pic.twitter.com/7bHq2ypK8t

— Crypto Rand (@crypto_rand) March 29, 2025

Despite the bearish flag pattern on daily charts, some indicators display hidden bullish divergence. This contradiction reflects the market’s current uncertainty about SOL’s direction.

Trading volume has decreased during this consolidation period, indicating reduced market activity. This often precedes a major move in either direction.

For now, Solana remains range-bound between $123 and $130. Bulls have defended the $123 support since March 2024, suggesting continued buying interest at these levels.

External factors like the announcement of new tariffs could increase volatility and push prices lower. However, without major negative news, the probability of revisiting the $150 level remains.

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