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The SpaceX IPO, the largest listing in history, is set to price this week, with Alphabet (GOOGL) stock fresh off a 12.67% slide from its May 18 record.
The debut turns a decade-old bet worth close to $100 billion into a number that updates every trading day. That visibility feeds the bull case behind Wall Street’s loftiest targets, while day-one sellers argue the other side.
SpaceX IPO Hype Peaks as Day-One Sellers Line Up
SpaceX is set to price its offering Thursday evening and begin trading Friday on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The fixed $ 135-per-share deal targets a $75 billion raise at a valuation near $1.75 trillion.
That makes it the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever. Reported demand neared $150 billion before order books, where investors submit share requests, were set to close Wednesday.
Meanwhile, SpaceX reserved 5% of the offering for a direct share program, a slice sold to buyers chosen by its executives. Those buyers skip the lockup, the usual post-IPO ban on insider selling, and can sell immediately.
Elon Musk, by contrast, committed his roughly 40% stake to a 366-day lockup.
Early backers are signaling exits, too. Chad Anderson, founder of venture firm Space Capital and an early SpaceX investor, told Fortune:
“We’ve been invested for almost ten years, it’s our business to return capital to investors.”
The biggest quiet winner in that queue is Alphabet itself.
Alphabet’s $900 Million Bet Is Now Worth Up to $107 Billion
Google paid roughly $900 million for its stake in SpaceX in 2015. An Alaska state filing reported by Bloomberg in April put the
Alphabet stake in SpaceX at 6.11% as of late 2025. SpaceX’s February merger with Musk’s AI firm xAI added new shares, likely trimming the holding to about 5%. At the listing price, that range is worth between $87 billion and $100 billion, a paper gain of roughly 100 times.
Investors who wanted SpaceX stock exposure long used Alphabet as a stand-in and can soon rotate into SPCX directly.
Google also agreed last week to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for AI computing power through June 2029. The deal totals about $30 billion and sits beside Anthropic’s $1.25 billion monthly contract.
Alphabet money, therefore, feeds SpaceX revenue either way.
A listing now hands Alphabet a path from paper to cash.
A $190 Billion AI Bill Pushes Alphabet Toward Monetization
Alphabet guided 2026 capital expenditures, the money spent on data centers and hardware, to as much as $190 billion. Operating cash flow, the cash the core business generates, covered $174 billion through March, below planned spending.
A June equity package included an $18 billion share sale and $16.75 billion of convertible preferred stock. The preferred paper later converts into common shares. It added a $40 billion at-the-market program, which drips new shares onto the exchange.
In simple terms, Alphabet plans to spend more this year than its business brings in. To cover the difference, it is selling new stock. A SpaceX windfall would bring in cash without that cost.
Shares outstanding measure the total stock in circulation. The count rose to 12.12 billion this quarter from 12.09 billion at the end of 2025. That is the first climb since at least 2018, and filings warn share buybacks may pause during the sales.
Alphabet EPS And Share Count: FinVizSelling SpaceX stock could plug the gap without minting new Alphabet shares. The timeline matters, though. SpaceX lists June 12, and its first earnings report covers the quarter ending June 30.
That report would likely land in late July or August. Under the standard schedule, 20% of the stake unlocks on the second trading day after it.
That window equals roughly $18 billion to $21 billion. Among existing holders, day-one selling can only come from the 5% direct share program buyers.
The rest frees up within 180 days under that schedule, meaning December at the earliest. Research firm Morningstar values SpaceX at nearly $780 billion, about half the listing price.
A $20 billion seller hitting a stock already called overpriced could push SPCX lower. A weaker SPCX price would also shrink the value of Alphabet’s remaining stake.
Institutional Money Flow Hints at an Early Turn
Alphabet stock has fallen for four straight weeks, with a peak-to-trough drop of 12.67% at the lows. Even so, it remains up more than 15% in 2026.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a volume-based proxy for institutional buying and selling pressure, turned negative in early June. The indicator bottomed near -0.10 and has climbed back to -0.03.
That compares with readings near 0.40 in mid-May, when the gauge suggested heavy institutional buying. The climb toward zero suggests selling pressure may now be easing.
Alphabet Stock Daily Chart: TradingViewDaily trading volume also faded through the decline, a sign that sellers may be losing force. A confirmed monetization plan could hand these flows a reason to turn positive.
The options market shows how traders positioned themselves through the same slide.
Options Traders Kept Buying Calls Through the Slide
The put-call ratio compares traded put contracts, which profit from declines, with bullish call contracts. Readings below 1 mean calls dominate. GOOGL’s volume ratio, built from each session’s trades, stood at 0.49 on June 9. Since the May 18 peak, it has swung between roughly 0.36 and 0.83.
GOOGL Put-Call Ratio Trend: BarChartThe open interest ratio, which counts open positions rather than daily trades, is 0.78. That is down from a late-May area near 0.85, so some traders have removed downside protection.
Call dominance, as evidenced by a double-digit drop, suggests traders expect Alphabet to be revalued once SPCX trades. The logic, called the sum-of-the-parts, values each piece of the company separately rather than a single blended number.
Analyst targets and the chart turn that positioning into concrete numbers.
What Turns the 13% Slide Into the $475 Story for Alphabet Stock
TD Cowen lifted its Alphabet target to $475 from $450 this month. The firm expects Google’s data center power capacity to rise tenfold by 2031.
The SpaceX IPO adds the second leg. A live SPCX quote reprices the stake daily, worth $7 to $9 per Alphabet share. The low end takes the diluted 5% stake at $87.5 billion. The high end takes the full 6.11% at $106.9 billion. Across Alphabet’s 12.12 billion shares, that equals $7.20 to $8.80 per share.
Other targets sit lower but stay bullish. HSBC made this month’s only cut, to $420 from $435, while keeping a buy rating. Barclays holds $405, UBS $410 with a hold, Bank of America $430, and Needham $450.
Alphabet Analyst Price Targets: Stock AnalysisAlphabet stock heads into the SpaceX debut still up more than 15% this year, even after the pullback. Institutional money flow is turning back up, and options traders keep favoring calls. A $100 billion windfall now sits one decision away.
The May 18 record at $408.99 sits about 12% above the last close. The lowest analyst targets, $405 and $410, are almost the same.
So, a climb back above the old record would put the stock inside the $405 to $475 target range. A strong SPCX opening, along with any sign that Alphabet plans to sell part of its stake, supports that path.
The risks are just as clear. Day-one sellers face no restrictions on 5% of the offering. For now, the $360 floor separates the road toward $475 from a slide that hands control to the bears.
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