SpaceX shares expected to gain 35% after record IPO as crypto markets front-run the action

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising approximately $75 billion and landing a $1.77 trillion valuation. That makes it the largest initial public offering in history.

But the IPO price might already be stale. Shadow market trading and crypto-linked derivatives suggest the stock could jump roughly 35% when it begins trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, potentially pushing the company’s valuation toward $2.4 trillion. That would put the implied share price around $180.

The crypto market got there first

Hyperliquid, the decentralized perpetual futures exchange, listed SPCX perpetual futures contracts that were trading in the $174 to $183 range ahead of the Nasdaq debut.

Hyperliquid reported 24-hour trading volume exceeding $143 million, with open interest crossing $208 million.

From $800 billion to $1.77 trillion in six months

In December 2025, SpaceX conducted a tender offer that valued the company at approximately $800 billion. Less than six months later, the IPO priced at more than double that figure.

Musk’s significant ownership stake in the company means that if shares open near shadow-market levels, he edges closer to becoming one of the world’s first trillionaires.

Retail investors got a seat, just not the one they wanted

Retail allocations were capped in the low 20s as a percentage of the total offering, below what had originally been expected.

No blockchain protocols or digital assets were incorporated into the IPO’s core offering. Retail investors, often locked out of traditional IPO allocations that favor institutional players, turned to Hyperliquid’s perpetual futures to get exposure.

What this means for investors

A successful SpaceX debut at $2.4 trillion would likely energize the broader IPO pipeline. It could also validate the idea that pre-IPO crypto derivatives are reliable leading indicators of public market performance.

Over $143 million in 24-hour volume and $208 million in open interest for a single pre-IPO derivative contract demonstrates that decentralized exchanges can handle serious capital flows around major financial events.

Traders who bought SPCX perpetual futures near $183 are essentially betting that public market investors will agree with their valuation on day one. There’s also the structural question of what happens to crypto-based pre-IPO markets as regulators take notice. A $208 million open interest position on an unregulated derivatives platform, referencing a stock that hasn’t started trading yet, is exactly the kind of thing that tends to attract regulatory attention.

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