SpaceX stock nears IPO price, down 4% after lockup expiration

When SpaceX went public in June 2026 at $135 per share, the excitement was hard to overstate. One of the most anticipated IPOs in a generation, a rocket company run by the world’s most recognizable entrepreneur, a story that blended cutting-edge aerospace with Starlink’s internet ambitions. The stock briefly shot past $200. Then came August.

With the first major lockup expiration now in the rearview mirror, SpaceX shares have fallen to within 4% of that original $135 IPO price, touching a recent low of $108.27 before recovering slightly. For anyone who bought at the peak, that’s a round trip from euphoria to something considerably more uncomfortable.

What just happened with the lockup

On August 6, 2026, the first tranche of SpaceX’s staggered lockup schedule expired, making roughly 911.5 million shares eligible for sale on the open market.

To put that in perspective: the company’s publicly traded float before this date was approximately 4.9% of total shares outstanding. After August 6, that figure jumped to around 11.8%. In practical terms, the supply of freely tradable SpaceX stock roughly doubled in a single day.

Interestingly, SpaceX shares actually moved up around 6.1% on the unlock date itself, suggesting that traders had already sold the rumor and were cautiously buying the news.

Not everyone is free to sell, though. Elon Musk and certain large investors are subject to a 366-day lockup, meaning their shares remain off the table for now. That distinction matters: the shares that became available August 6 are largely held by earlier employees and smaller pre-IPO stakeholders, not the company’s most significant insiders.

From moon to floor: the anatomy of a post-IPO slide

The stock cleared $200 in mid-June, roughly a 50% premium to the IPO price in a matter of weeks. The slide from those highs to the current level near $130 represents a drawdown of roughly 50% from peak. Investors who bought on the first day and held are roughly flat. Investors who chased the June rally are nursing real losses.

The staggered nature of SpaceX’s lockup schedule adds another layer of complexity. This isn’t a clean 180-day cliff release, the format most companies use, where all restricted shares become available on a single date. SpaceX’s structure means additional tranches will likely become eligible at different intervals, keeping a ceiling of potential selling pressure over the stock for an extended period.

What this means for investors watching from the sidelines

The bull case rests on SpaceX’s core business strengths. Starlink has become a genuine revenue engine, providing broadband internet to customers globally. The company’s launch business is essentially unrivaled for cost efficiency at scale. And its government contracts, both civilian and defense-related, provide a base of recurring revenue that pure-tech comparables rarely enjoy.

The dynamic also creates an interesting situation for the insiders who are still locked up. Musk and the company’s largest early backers are watching this price action from the sidelines, unable to sell even if they wanted to. Their 366-day restriction means they’re deeply incentivized to support the stock through continued execution and strategic announcements rather than letting it drift below the IPO price before their own exit window opens.

For retail investors, the most important variable to track is the cadence of upcoming lockup tranches. Each new release date will bring a fresh round of questions about who is selling, how much, and whether the market has enough demand to absorb the new supply without breaking key price levels. The $135 IPO price is now functioning as a psychological floor, the line between a rough start and a genuine problem.

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