SPCX Stock Struggles Ahead of August Earnings and Share Unlocks

SpaceX (SPCX) shares closed at $135.27 on Wednesday. That sits just above the company’s $135 initial public offering (IPO) price, after an intraday low of $132.28.

The dip marks SPCX’s first close below its IPO price since the stock’s Nasdaq debut on June 12. It also lands weeks before dates that could reshape how the stock trades.

A Shrinking Float Meets an Expanding One

Roughly 95% of SpaceX’s shares remain locked following the IPO. That leaves only about 5% of the company freely tradable. That scarcity helped fuel the stock’s early run past $2.6 trillion in valuation.

Sitting just above its initial IPO price, and below what the shares sold at on Day 1, SPCX is struggling. Image Source: Trading View

That structure starts changing soon. SpaceX will release additional 7% tranches through August and September. A larger release follows third-quarter results later this year. Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion-share stake remains locked separately until June 2027.

Earnings Day Doubles as Unlock Day

Analysts expect SpaceX to report its first quarterly results in the first week of August. The same earnings window also triggers the first scheduled unlock. It frees roughly 20% of previously restricted shares for sale.

A bonus 10% tranche unlocks early if shares trade 30% above the IPO price. That threshold requires five of the ten trading days before the report to close above $175.50. SPCX currently trades well below that mark.

The stock’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion failed to reverse the slide, and shares have already fallen dramatically from their peak. Still, some technical analysts still see a rebound scenario forming with $158 in view.

Whether the August report gives insiders reason to hold or sell into a newly available float remains uncertain. That decision may reveal as much as the earnings numbers themselves.

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