Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic collapses after US strikes on Iran

Five ships. That’s what crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the immediate aftermath of US strikes on Iran. A waterway that normally handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas trade was, for a moment, almost empty.

The numbers tell the story plainly. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler tracked just 23 vessel transits through the strait mid-week, down from 47 the prior week. Then came the strikes, and that number fell to five.

What happened and why it matters

US Central Command launched targeted strikes on Iran beginning July 8, hitting air defense installations, radar systems, anti-ship missile batteries, and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels positioned along the strait.

The strikes were a direct response to Iranian attacks on at least three commercial vessels, including tankers and a liquefied natural gas carrier, that had been transiting the region.

The Strait of Hormuz is, by any measure, the single most important maritime chokepoint on the planet. It sits between Iran and Oman at its narrowest point, and through it flows roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply. There is no easy alternative. Ships forced to avoid it must reroute around the southern tip of Africa, adding thousands of nautical miles and weeks to voyage times.

A pattern of disruption that keeps resetting

This is not a one-off event. The current escalation traces back to exchanges that began in late February 2026, and the disruptions to Hormuz traffic have been recurring ever since.

During the most acute periods of conflict, traffic data has shown drops of between 70% and 97%. That range represents something close to a full shutdown of one of the most important corridors in global commerce.

Recovery has been consistent but fragile. After weekend strikes, one subsequent Monday saw traffic bounce back to around 40 vessels, suggesting captains and operators are watching events closely and resuming routes the moment conditions appear to stabilize. But those stabilizations have not held.

Insurance is a meaningful part of this picture. War-risk premiums on vessels transiting the strait have surged, and some carriers have suspended coverage entirely for routes through the region.

What energy and crypto markets are watching

For energy markets, the implications are already significant. The strait disruption analysts are describing as the largest oil supply shock in decades is not a theoretical risk scenario. It is the current baseline.

For crypto markets, the more immediate risk is on the cost side. Bitcoin mining is energy-intensive, and a sustained spike in global energy prices directly compresses miner margins, particularly for operations in regions without long-term fixed-rate power contracts. If energy costs remain elevated for an extended period, expect that to show up in hash rate data and miner capitulation signals.

What traders are watching most closely right now is whether the traffic recovery pattern that has held in previous escalation cycles, a brief collapse followed by a cautious return, reasserts itself here, or whether the July 8 strikes represent a qualitative shift in the conflict that changes the risk calculation for shipping operators on a longer time horizon.

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