Strait of Hormuz to stay partially closed until late 2026, Baker Hughes predicts

Baker Hughes predicts the Strait of Hormuz will remain partially closed until at least the second half of 2026, and the odds of traffic returning to normal by May 15 sit at 19.5% YES.

Market reaction

The Baker Hughes projection affects several related markets. The WTI Crude Oil price market reflects expectations of higher prices, since prolonged disruption at a major oil transit chokepoint means tighter supply. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 is at 0.6% YES, down from 1% yesterday, suggesting traders may still be pricing in a resolution before Baker Hughes’ projected timeline.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market shows clear skepticism about a quick recovery. At 19.5% YES, traders are betting against traffic flows recovering by May 15, with current traffic far below pre-conflict levels.

Why it matters

Volume in the Strait of Hormuz traffic market hit $215,992 in face value traded over the last 24 hours, with $36,459 in actual USDC changing hands. The market can be moved with $4,658, meaning it’s exposed to swings from large trades.

Baker Hughes’ statement matters because it contradicts forecasts that anticipated a quicker resolution to the conflict. A YES share on the Strait of Hormuz traffic market at 19.5% pays $1 if traffic resumes by May 15, a 5.1x return. That bet requires the situation to stabilize faster than the current outlook suggests.

What to watch

Announcements from CENTCOM and diplomatic moves from President Trump and the Iranian government could shift the odds on these markets.

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