Tesla, Alphabet, IBM Report Today: Why Are Options Traders Paying 86% Volatility?

Tesla, Alphabet, and IBM all report second-quarter earnings after Wednesday’s closing bell. Options traders are bracing for big single-day swings from all three.

Recent history explains the nerves. Alphabet’s last report moved the stock almost twice as much as expected. IBM’s July warning erased a quarter of its value in one day.

Tesla Options Price Their Widest Earnings Move in a Year

Tesla (TSLA) options point to a move of about 5.6% by Friday, per OptionCharts data from Wednesday morning. That widens to 7.4% a week out. In dollar terms, traders see the stock landing between $356 and $399.

That is a wide range. Tesla has averaged just a 4.4% move after its last four reports, per CNBC.

TSLA expected move by expiry table, July 24 at ±5.63%, Source: OptionCharts.io

Many traders are bracing for a fall. Put options, which pay off when a stock drops, outnumber calls in Friday’s expiry. The biggest bets sit at strikes far below the current price.

CNBC options analyst Mike Khouw counted roughly $550 million in net bets against the stock. That is the same $550 million options bet backing chart analyst Carter Worth’s bearish call.

TSLA open interest, puts vs. calls for July 24 expiry, Source: OptionCharts.io

BeInCrypto’s Tesla earnings preview flags margins and robotaxi updates as the things to watch.

Alphabet and IBM Earnings Show Opposite Risk Profiles

Alphabet (GOOGL) is the opposite trade. Options price a 5% move, and bullish calls outnumber puts almost five to one.

GOOGL open interest showing call-heavy skew, Source: OptionCharts.io

Traders remember April. Alphabet earned $5.11 per share when Wall Street expected about $2.65. The stock jumped 10% and added $421 billion in value, the second-biggest one-day gain ever, per Bloomberg.

The Google earnings preview points to cloud growth and AI spending as the first tests.

IBM is the strange one. It already revealed its numbers on July 14. Revenue came in at $17.2 billion, below forecasts. The stock lost a quarter of its value that day, its worst drop on record, per CNBC.

CEO Arvind Krishna blamed big deals that slipped past quarter-end.

“This quarter we faltered.”

Yet IBM options are now the priciest of the three. Implied volatility, a measure of expected swings, sits above 86% for Friday.

Ibm implied volatility earnings

Traders are not paying for the results. They are paying for protection against bad guidance.

What Options Flow Can and Cannot Confirm

One caution. Options data is anonymous. It shows the size of bets, not who made them. Hedge fund positions only become public in filings 45 days after each quarter ends. Sentiment was already split after Jim Cramer dumped tech stocks days before the reports.

Expected moves are estimates, not limits. Alphabet and IBM both proved that this year.

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