The Calm Before the Storm: Is Bitcoin Poised for a Parabolic Breakout?

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a narrow range, hovering around the $67,000 mark, analysts and investors are closely monitoring the cryptocurrency’s price action for signs of a potential breakout.

Recent data suggests that Bitcoin whales are seizing the opportunity to accumulate more BTC, with the $1-$10 million order category increasing their exposure throughout April.

TLDR

• Bitcoin whales are accumulating BTC, with the $1-$10 million order category increasing exposure through April.
• Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC ($66.7 million – $667 million) are showing “FOMO” and have accumulated 1.24% of the entire supply.
• Bitcoin is trading within a tight range of $62,000 – $68,000, with a bid wall of around $35 million on Binance taken at the daily close.
• Analysts suggest that the crypto market could enjoy a final stretch of low volatility before a significant shift takes hold.
• Previous bitcoin halvings have driven price records and wider crypto bull markets, with analysts outlining the potential for a parabolic rise in the coming months.

According to research firm Santiment, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC ($66.7 million – $667 million) are exhibiting “FOMO” behavior, having accumulated an additional 266,000 BTC since the start of 2024. This accumulation accounts for 1.24% of the entire Bitcoin supply, with this class of whales now owning more than a quarter of all BTC in circulation.

???? #Bitcoin's key whale tier holding 1K-10K $BTC are supporting this rise, and have now accumulated 266K more $BTC since the start of 2024. This translates to an accumulation of 1.24% of the entire supply. The crowd is also showing a high degree of #FOMO. https://t.co/fNSTOERzXo pic.twitter.com/qaJmQJfFca

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 24, 2024

The renewed interest from whales comes as Bitcoin’s price action remains confined within a tight range of $62,000 – $68,000. A recent bid wall of around $35 million on the Binance exchange was taken at the daily close, signaling strong support at current levels. However, the bulk of ask liquidity now sits between $67,000 and $67,500, potentially acting as a key resistance zone.

Trading firm QCP Capital suggests that the crypto market could be enjoying a final stretch of low volatility before a seismic shift takes hold. In their latest market update, QCP described the current market conditions as an “unsettling quietness,” noting that Bitcoin’s front-end volatility has trickled down closer to 60%.

This period of relative calm comes just a week after the fourth Bitcoin halving, which saw the block reward for miners reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have preceded significant bull runs, with the previous three events ultimately driving the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs.

Crypto market analyst Scott Melker has outlined the potential for a parabolic rise in Bitcoin’s price following the recent halving. By examining the asset’s historical price chart, Melker highlighted the bullish impact of previous halvings, noting that the price tends to remain relatively stagnant in the immediate aftermath before experiencing substantial gains.

“If past halvings are an indication of what is yet to come, it may be a boring few months before we once again go parabolic to new all-time highs,”

Melker concluded. He emphasized that while the halving itself is not a tradeable event, the larger impacts of the fourth halving may start to manifest in the coming months.

However, not all analysts share the same optimism. JPMorgan, in a recent report, projected that the Bitcoin price may falter post-halving, citing the cryptocurrency’s “overbought” status based on an analysis of open interest in Bitcoin futures.

The bank’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, also noted that the current Bitcoin price of around $66,000 remains above their volatility-adjusted comparison with gold, which sets it at $45,000, and their projected production cost of $42,000 after the halving.

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