Toncoin Drops 30% Post-Durov Arrest, Is a Rebound on the Horizon?

• Toncoin has dropped 30% since August 2024 after Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s arrest in France.
• The token, once valued at $6.80, now trades around $4.80 with a market cap of $12.06 billion.
• French authorities arrested Durov over Telegram’s alleged involvement in illegal activities, sparking market uncertainty.

Toncoin has faced heavy selling pressure since August 2024, following the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov in France. The token, which once traded near $6.80, has seen a sharp decline of 30% over the past six months. Market sentiment remains mixed, as some investors continue to sell, while on-chain data suggests steady accumulation.

Toncoin Faces Selling Pressure but Accumulation Rises

French authorities arrested Durov at Le Bourget airport near Paris, linking Telegram to illegal activities, including drug trafficking and child abuse material distribution. Though released from custody, Durov remains under formal investigation and cannot leave France. His legal issues have directly impacted Toncoin, triggering uncertainty among investors.

Despite the turbulence, Toncoin still holds a 128% yearly gain, demonstrating resilience in a volatile market. However, traders remain cautious as regulatory scrutiny over Telegram could further affect the token’s performance. The uncertainty surrounding Durov’s case continues to influence market sentiment, creating both risks and opportunities.

Since Durov’s arrest, investors have offloaded over 890,000 Toncoin, leading to a 29% drop in market capitalization. Toncoin, currently ranked 14th among cryptocurrencies, now trades around $4.80 with a market cap of $12.06 billion. Despite persistent selling, the accumulation/distribution indicator points to increasing accumulation since November, shortly after Donald Trump’s election victory.

Traders remain divided on whether Toncoin has reached its bottom or if further losses are ahead. While some see the token as oversold, others anticipate additional downside due to lingering uncertainty. The mixed signals from market indicators keep investors on edge as they await clarity on regulatory developments.

TON Nears Oversold Zone as Buyers Wait

TON’s 4-hour chart shows a clear descending trend, with lower highs and lower lows defining its movement. The $4.82 level has emerged as strong support, with price stabilization hinting at a potential reversal. If Toncoin climbs above $4.90 and sustains gains beyond $5.00, it could rally toward $5.30.

However, a close below $4.80 with high selling volume could drive the price lower, potentially testing the $4.60 or $4.00 levels. The daily chart shows Toncoin hovering near the lower Bollinger Band since early January 2025, signaling oversold conditions. While this could attract buyers, the downward trend of the lower Bollinger Band warns traders against premature long positions.

Toncoin remains at a critical juncture as investors weigh legal uncertainties against technical signals. The market’s next move depends on whether accumulation gains momentum or selling pressure intensifies.

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