Toncoin Price’s 20% Rally May Be Short-Lived, Reversal Likely

Toncoin (TON) has recently seen a resurgence in its price, reaching a monthly high with a 20% surge this week. While this rise has sparked optimism, it has yet to solidify as Toncoin faces ongoing pressure from holders looking to secure profits. 

Whether TON can maintain its momentum remains uncertain as signs of potential pullbacks emerge.

Toncoin STHs Are Gaining Profits

Currently, the MVRV Long/Short Difference indicator is signaling potential turbulence for Toncoin. The indicator has dropped further into negative territory, suggesting that short-term holders are in profit.

Given that these investors typically hold Toncoin for less than a month, they are prone to sell quickly, especially during price surges. Such a pattern is often bearish, as increased selling pressure from short-term holders can limit price growth and reverse upward trends.

The negative MVRV Long/Short Difference highlights the cautious sentiment surrounding Toncoin. While the recent price rise has been substantial, the presence of short-term holders selling off their positions could hinder further gains. This situation presents a challenge for Toncoin, as it may struggle to sustain its uptrend if short-term investors continue to sell in large volumes.

Toncoin MVRV Long/Short Difference. Source: Santiment

Toncoin’s macro momentum is also showing signs of potential reversal, as reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is approaching the overbought zone. Historically, when Toncoin’s RSI breaches this zone, the price tends to experience a correction or reversal. If the RSI crosses into overbought territory, Toncoin may face similar pressure, resulting in a pullback that could cool off the recent rally.

The nearing overbought RSI emphasizes the cautious outlook for TON’s price trajectory. This pattern of RSI-driven corrections could impact investor sentiment, prompting traders to secure profits before a potential dip. Such macro-level signals highlight that Toncoin may face resistance in its effort to maintain the current upward momentum.

Toncoin RSI. Source: TradingView

TON Price Prediction: New Highs Are Too Far

Toncoin has increased nearly 20% over the past week, trading around $5.59. TON is now eyeing the critical resistance level of $5.96 as it attempts to break through and reach $6.00, a significant milestone for the asset.

However, with the aforementioned bearish indicators, it seems unlikely that Toncoin will breach this resistance easily. If selling intensifies, TON could drop below its $5.37 support, indicating further declines as profit-taking becomes more prominent.

Toncoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If Toncoin manages to stabilize and secure $5.37 as a strong support level, it may attempt another rally toward $5.96. Breaching this level would challenge the current bearish outlook, providing TON with the foundation needed to target new highs.

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