Trump agencies to develop crypto policy as landmark bill stalls in Senate

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known formally as H.R. 3633, has stalled in the US Senate after lawmakers adjourned for their August recess without holding a vote. The bill passed the House back in July 2025, which at the time felt like a breakthrough moment for an industry desperate for clear rules. More than a year later, it’s still waiting for its Senate debut.

What happened to the Clarity Act

The bill was designed to do something deceptively simple: draw a bright line between which digital assets count as securities and which count as commodities. That distinction matters enormously because it determines whether the SEC or the CFTC has jurisdiction over a given token or protocol.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed for cloture before the recess, a procedural move that signals debate could resume in September. But the odds aren’t exactly inspiring. Polymarket, the prediction market platform, pegged the implied probability of the bill’s passage at roughly 16% as of early August.

Several unresolved issues have kept the legislation stuck. Ethics provisions related to decentralized finance, stablecoin regulations, and the basic math of needing enough Democratic votes to clear a potential filibuster have all contributed to the gridlock.

Agencies fill the gap

With Congress effectively sidelined, the Trump administration is turning to its agency heads to provide what legislation has not. The SEC, now led by pro-crypto Chair Paul Atkins, and the CFTC, under Chair Michael Selig, are both expected to issue agency-level regulations aimed at bringing some order to the digital asset landscape.

These rules could include exemptions for certain token offerings, a move that would give projects more room to launch without the constant threat of enforcement action. The CFTC side may focus on enhancing oversight of perpetual futures and other derivatives, products that have become a massive part of the crypto trading ecosystem but exist in a regulatory gray zone within the US.

Agency rules created under one administration can be rewritten or repealed under the next. Executive-level policy is inherently fragile. A future SEC chair with a different philosophy could reverse Atkins’ exemptions with relatively little friction. Legislation, once signed into law, is far harder to undo.

Why this matters for markets

Without a durable legal framework, institutional investors face a difficult calculus. The rules governing their crypto exposure could shift dramatically depending on who wins the next election, which is not exactly the kind of stability that pension funds and endowments look for when deploying capital.

The hundreds of millions of dollars the crypto industry has poured into lobbying reflect just how urgently companies want this resolved. That spending has bought access and attention, but it hasn’t yet bought a law.

Traders should also prepare for choppy waters. Agency announcements tend to move markets, and the coming months could bring a series of them as the SEC and CFTC roll out their respective regulatory frameworks.

The September return of Congress offers a narrow window for the Clarity Act to get back on track. But with a 16% implied probability of passage, the market is effectively pricing in failure. If Thune can’t marshal the votes after the recess, the agency-led approach becomes not just Plan B but the only plan, potentially for the remainder of this Congress.

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