Trump announces major oil deal with Venezuela, no immediate gas price drop

Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a significant oil agreement with Venezuela, but he cautioned that the deal will not lead to an immediate decrease in gasoline prices. The Venezuelan oil sector has been constrained by U.S. sanctions, impacting its output and exports significantly. Despite the new agreement, retail gasoline prices in the U.S. remain elevated, with the national average hovering around $4.08 per gallon as of the end of August 2026. This context suggests that the deal, while potentially increasing future oil supply, may not alleviate current price pressures.

The announcement appears to have influenced activity, particularly in prediction markets focused on oil price trajectories. The likelihood of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 saw a slight decrease, currently priced at 2.3% YES. This suggests that market participants view the deal as potentially easing long-term supply constraints, though not quickly enough to impact prices in the short term.

With the deal in place, market participants will be closely monitoring developments in Venezuelan oil production and any additional geopolitical factors that may affect global oil prices. Key actors in the oil industry, including OPEC and IEA leaders, remain focal points for further developments.

Key Takeaways

• Announcement of a large oil deal between the U.S. and Venezuela was made, but Trump stated it won’t lower gas prices immediately.
• Market pricing suggests participants view the deal as reducing the likelihood of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30.
• Venezuelan oil production remains constrained by sanctions, indicating limited immediate impact on U.S. gasoline prices.

What to Watch

Observers will be keen to see if Venezuelan oil production increases as a result of the new deal and how quickly this might alleviate current supply constraints. The focus remains on geopolitical developments and their implications for oil supply, especially in relation to U.S. sanctions and OPEC’s production strategies. Any announcements or actions from key energy leaders like OPEC’s Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo or the IEA’s Fatih Birol could provide additional insights into future pricing scenarios.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.