Trump announces nearing peace deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz

## Market Snapshot

The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May” market is currently priced at 16.6% for a YES outcome, up from 6% just 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the “Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?” market shows a 0.7% YES outcome, down from 1% 24 hours earlier.

## Key Takeaways

– Trump’s announcement of a peace agreement appears to significantly increase the likelihood of normal traffic resuming through the Strait of Hormuz. – The market pricing suggests a decrease in the probability of WTI Crude Oil prices hitting $150 in May, consistent with reduced geopolitical tensions. – Developments related to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain unaffected, as indicated by stable market pricing.

## Article Body

Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced via social media that a peace agreement involving Iran and several other Middle Eastern countries is nearing completion. The agreement, which addresses the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, involved discussions with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and other nations. According to Trump, the deal is largely negotiated, with final details pending. This development follows a separate call with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, which Trump described as productive. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to alleviate tensions and potentially stabilize oil supply routes.

## Market Interpretation

The announcement by Trump appears to be a high-impact development for the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May” market, with pricing supportive of a YES outcome. This suggests increased confidence in the resumption of normal maritime activities. In contrast, the “Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?” market reflects a decrease in expectations for a price surge, consistent with reduced geopolitical risk.

## What to Watch

Observers should monitor official announcements from the U.S. government and involved nations regarding the finalization of the peace agreement. Key indicators will be statements from the U.S. Central Command and the International Maritime Organization. Additionally, watch for any shifts in oil price forecasts from major institutions like the CME and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which could further influence market dynamics.

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WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 bearish

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