Trump assures Netanyahu won’t face arrest in US despite ICC warrant

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has assured that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not face arrest while in the United States, despite an active International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. This assurance comes amid tensions between Trump and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has shown support for enforcing the ICC warrant during Netanyahu’s potential visits, particularly for the UN General Assembly in September. Trump’s assurance aligns with previous U.S. federal positions, emphasizing non-cooperation with the ICC due to the U.S. not being a signatory to the Rome Statute and existing presidential orders that offer Netanyahu immunity.

Despite the legal complexities, markets appear to interpret this development as increasing the likelihood of a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu. The market for a Trump-Netanyahu meeting by July 31, 2026, shows a significant YES probability, suggesting confidence that Trump’s assurances may facilitate such an engagement. However, the pricing for a meeting by earlier dates remains low, indicating uncertainty about immediate developments.

The potential for a meeting is also influenced by geopolitical factors, including ongoing tensions in Gaza and broader Middle Eastern diplomacy. Market activity reflects these dynamics, with participants seemingly weighing the prospects of diplomatic breakthroughs or setbacks.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s assurance appears to support the scenario of Netanyahu visiting the U.S. without arrest concerns, in line with existing U.S. policies.
• Market pricing suggests increased confidence in a potential Trump-Netanyahu meeting by the end of July, with a marked increase in YES probability for that timeframe.
• Ongoing geopolitical developments, such as tensions in Gaza and related diplomatic efforts, could influence the likelihood of a meeting.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any official announcements from the White House or Netanyahu’s office regarding a potential meeting. Developments in Gaza and related diplomatic efforts, such as ceasefire agreements, could also impact the likelihood of a Trump-Netanyahu engagement. Additionally, any legal or political maneuvers by New York officials in response to Trump’s assurance may further influence market pricing and expectations.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.