3 hours ago
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Trump’s endorsement of Israel-Lebanon talks points to diplomatic movement on the Iran conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 is at 10.5% YES, while a permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 16.5% YES.
The ceasefire extension by April 21 market holds steady at 10.5% despite the news. The April 30 contract is at 38.5% YES, up sharply from 19% a week ago, which suggests traders expect a diplomatic breakthrough on a weeks-long timeline rather than an immediate one. The May 31 market jumped to 58.5% YES, showing growing confidence in a permanent settlement as talks continue.
Trading volume is $686,627 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The largest move was a 10-point drop in the May 31 odds, possibly driven by a single large order. The order book is thin: only $14,741 would move the May 31 odds by 5 points.
No concrete agreements exist yet, but US-facilitated talks between Israel and Lebanon point to broader regional diplomatic efforts. With YES shares at 16.5¢, a permanent peace deal by April 22 would pay $1, a 4.5x return. That payout requires a fast diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for progress in the Israel-Lebanon talks, statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, and Trump’s social media posts. These will directly affect where these contracts trade next.
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