3 hours ago
15
US President Trump claims Iran will halt backing for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. A US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 diplomatic meeting market already sat at 100%, so Trump’s statement didn’t move it. The odds for a ceasefire breakdown announcement by April 21 have dropped to 9% YES, suggesting traders see less chance of an imminent collapse in ceasefire conditions.
Why it matters
The claim has not moved Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30, which remains at 4% YES. Traders are clearly skeptical that this diplomatic development signals regime change or Pahlavi’s return.
What to watch
The ceasefire market has $2,128 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, with $2,103 required to move the odds 5 points, showing real depth. The largest move was a 1-point drop at 6:21 PM.
Trump’s statement came via social media, which limits its weight. Buying YES at 9¢ offers a 11.1x return if the ceasefire breaks within five days, but that bet requires believing Trump’s claim is unreliable enough to unravel the current trajectory.
The next signals to track: official confirmation or denial from the Iranian Foreign Ministry or US State Department, any formal acknowledgment by Iranian officials, or a White House press briefing addressing the claim.
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