3 hours ago
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Trump’s Truth Social posts declaring US control over the Strait of Hormuz have pushed odds for Iran diplomatic meetings by May 31 down to 73% YES, from 82% twenty-four hours ago.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market dropped sharply to 9.5% YES, down from 18% yesterday. Trump’s hardline stance on Hormuz makes a rapid diplomatic breakthrough less likely on any timeline. The May 31 peace deal odds fell to 38.5% from 52% a day ago, as traders price in extended tensions.
The diplomatic meetings market traded $27,582 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The permanent peace deal market saw $433,823 in USDC traded. Order book depth is moderate: $8,549 would move the diplomatic odds 5 points.
At 38.5%, the May 31 peace deal market implies a 2.6x payout on a YES share if a deal materializes. Trump’s rhetoric has consistently reinforced a hardline posture, and traders would need concrete diplomatic moves, such as a mediator’s involvement or a change in Iran’s leadership dynamics, to reassess these odds.
Watch for Trump’s upcoming statements and any third-party mediation efforts from Pakistan or Oman. Either could shift these markets quickly.
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