4 hours ago
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US President Donald Trump has confirmed that restrictions on Iranian ports will remain despite Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz “open and ready for business.” The market for a US blockade lift by May 31 is at 90.5% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The April 17 market is the immediate focus, sitting at 8.5% YES with a single day left until resolution. The April 19 market is at 27.5% YES, a slightly higher expectation despite the bearish news.
Volume tells the story. The April 19 market saw $11,934 in actual USDC traded, with just $257 needed to move the price 5 points. That’s a thin order book, vulnerable to sudden swings. The May 31 market is better supported, requiring $3,730 to shift.
Trump’s firm stance on maintaining port restrictions after Iran’s announcement points to limited near-term de-escalation. This is a strong signal that the blockade will persist through the end of April. A YES share in the May 31 market, priced at 90.5¢, pays 1.22x if the blockade is lifted. For this to pay off, traders need to believe substantive diplomatic progress will happen in the coming weeks.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the White House indicating a policy shift. Iranian Foreign Ministry communications could also signal breakthrough negotiations.
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