3 hours ago
10
Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran just before its expiration. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 15% YES, down from 32% yesterday.
The April 30 odds have not rebounded despite the extension. The largest move yesterday was a brief 5-point spike that quickly reversed. Traders appear wary of Trump’s dual approach: extending the ceasefire while keeping the naval blockade in place.
Daily volume is $68,607 in USDC, with $4,074 required to move odds by 5 percentage points. That’s moderate liquidity; a single large order could still move the market meaningfully. Iran’s rejection of talks and military threats drove recent bearish sentiment, and the indefinite ceasefire extension hasn’t changed that.
With nine days left, the market needs more than a headline. At 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if hostilities end by April 30, a potential 6.67x return. That bet requires confidence in a near-term diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for intermediary moves from Oman or Qatar, or a shift in CENTCOM’s posture. Either could be the trigger that reprices this market.
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