1 hour ago
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President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 16% a week ago.
Market reaction
The blockade announcement has pressured longer-term peace deal markets as well. The May 31 contract is at 30% YES, down from 52% a week ago. The June 30 contract sits at 44% YES. The biggest gap is from April 30 to May 31, suggesting traders expect any diplomatic movement would come only after immediate tensions cool.
Trading volume across these markets hit $498,141 USDC over the last 24 hours. Order book depth requires substantial capital to move prices by 5 percentage points, especially for the May and June contracts. The largest single price move was a 1-point spike at 1:30 PM on the May 31 market.
Why it matters
An extended blockade represents a hardening US stance that directly reduces the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough. With Trump committed to military pressure, the path to a peace deal narrows considerably. A contrarian might still see opportunity: buying YES at 1¢ pays $1 if a peace deal is somehow reached by April 30, a 100x return on a long shot.
What to watch
Traders should monitor any shifts in rhetoric from Trump’s aides or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. New diplomatic efforts from Oman or Pakistan could also signal a change in direction.
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