Trump orders Israel to halt Lebanon attacks, enforces 10-day ceasefire

Donald Trump announced that the US has commanded Israel to cease attacks on Lebanon, solidifying a 10-day ceasefire. The market on whether Trump would endorse this ceasefire is at 100% YES.

The directive is part of a broader effort to de-escalate the 2026 Lebanon and Iran conflicts. The US order pushed the June 30 ceasefire market to 100% YES. The April 30 market also sits at 100% YES, with traders pricing in immediate compliance.

All three markets hit 100% YES, but zero trades occurred in the last 24 hours. The certainty reflects settled sentiment rather than fresh activity. Combined volume is at a standstill, which suggests traders are waiting for confirmation of actual compliance from Hezbollah before any new positions open.

Trump’s direct command to Israel represents the US spending real diplomatic capital on the ceasefire. Whether it holds depends on two things: Hezbollah’s adherence to the terms (its acceptance has been conditional) and Israel’s response to any perceived threats during the 10-day window.

Watch for official statements from Hezbollah or changes in Israeli military posture. These are the clearest indicators of whether the ceasefire holds in practice. Netanyahu’s public response and any further US diplomatic moves could reopen trading activity in these markets.

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