Trump orders more strikes after Iran attacks ships in Strait of Hormuz

President Donald Trump has ordered additional military strikes on Iranian targets following attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This development comes amid a significant escalation in the 2026 Iran–United States conflict, which had briefly paused under an interim ceasefire. The ceasefire collapsed after Iran struck three vessels, prompting the U.S. to increase its military operations against Iran. The U.S. action includes targeting approximately 90 Iranian military sites, reflecting a shift toward a more aggressive stance aimed at degrading Iran’s capabilities and possibly enforcing a naval blockade.

The market for a potential U.S. invasion of Iran before the end of 2026 has reacted to these developments. The likelihood of an invasion, as reflected by market pricing, increased to 19.5% from 18% over the past 24 hours, reflecting heightened tensions and the potential for further escalation. The U.S. military’s actions, coupled with Iran’s declaration of closing the Strait, have contributed to the growing perception of an increased risk of broader conflict.

This strategic move by the U.S. underscores the fragile state of the region and the potential for significant geopolitical shifts. The situation continues to evolve, with key actors such as the Iranian Supreme Leader, the Israeli government, and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth playing pivotal roles in the unfolding events.

Key Takeaways

• Market pricing suggests increased prospects of a U.S. invasion of Iran, currently priced at 19.5% YES.
• Recent U.S. military strikes and Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz are consistent with scenarios that support a YES outcome.
• The escalation indicates a breakdown in diplomacy and a potential for broader regional conflict.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor further military developments, particularly any U.S. troop movements or operational plans that may indicate an impending invasion. The actions of key geopolitical players, including Israeli military responses and Iranian leadership decisions, could also influence market pricing of the likelihood of a U.S. invasion. Additionally, any new diplomatic engagements or ceasefire attempts could impact the current trajectory towards heightened conflict.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.