Trump orders new US military offensive against Iran, could start this weekend

President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered a new U.S. military offensive against Iran, which could commence as soon as this weekend, according to the Wall Street Journal. The planned operation is aimed at compelling Tehran to surrender, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. This move follows the resumption of hostilities earlier in July, as reported to Congress by President Trump, which opened a new 60-day window for military actions without needing congressional approval. The conflict has seen repeated U.S. and Iranian attacks over recent months, with temporary ceasefires failing to hold.

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests an increase in perceived likelihood of a U.S. invasion of Iran, with the current probability standing at 24.5%.
• The reported offensive aligns with an escalation pattern, potentially indicating a shift towards a more sustained military campaign against Iran.
• Market participants appear to interpret the new military orders as consistent with scenarios where the U.S. takes more aggressive actions before the end of 2026.

What to Watch

The upcoming days will be critical for observing any military movements or official announcements from the Pentagon that could further influence market perceptions. Watch for statements from key actors such as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or President Trump, which could either confirm or de-escalate the current situation. Any significant changes in Iranian military actions or diplomatic developments could also impact the market’s view on the probability of a U.S. invasion. If the offensive begins as reported, it may lead to increased pricing supportive of a YES outcome for the U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.