Trump plans extended Hormuz blockade, WTI crude oil hits $160 in April

Trump is preparing an extended blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April market sits at 50% YES, reflecting the potential price impact if the blockade proceeds.

Market reaction

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market prices a 50% YES on traffic returning to normal by the end of April, with only one day left before the April 30 resolution. The oil market trades with no volume today, and the Strait of Hormuz market is also inactive. The Trump blockade announcement market dropped from 58% to 50.5% YES over the past 24 hours, though a 12-point spike at 11:40 AM moved it from 56% to 68%. Daily trading volume is at $322,748 USDC, with $16,155 needed to move the price 5 points, showing real interest but also vulnerability to large trades.

Why it matters

Crude oil prices have historically reacted sharply to Hormuz-related tensions. An extended blockade of the strait, which handles a large share of global oil transit, would directly affect supply flows and pricing. The blockade’s potential extension carries real weight given this context.

What to watch

Watch for statements from Trump or Secretary Hegseth on the blockade’s status. Any confirmation of military action in the Strait of Hormuz could shift market expectations and prices quickly.

A YES share at 50¢ pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade lift by May 31, a 2x return. That bet requires believing in negotiations or a strategic shift within 32 days.

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