3 hours ago
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Trump told CBS that removing Iran’s uranium would not require ground troops, pushing the odds of a US-Iran uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 to 49.3% YES, up from 35% yesterday.
The market for Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 moved sharply after Trump’s de-escalation comments. A week ago, this contract sat at 10%. With the deadline 14 days away, the price reflects expectations of diplomatic progress, particularly with talks rumored in Islamabad. The odds for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 are at 29.5% YES, down slightly from 20% yesterday, which points to some belief in diplomatic movement but persistent doubt about actual uranium transfer.
Trading volume reveals how thin these markets are. The uranium agreement contract saw $23,824 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, and a $599 investment was enough to move the odds by 5 points. The market for the US obtaining enriched uranium has a much thicker order book, requiring $33,304 to shift prices by the same margin, which suggests more entrenched positions on both sides.
Trump’s comments point toward diplomacy rather than military action, but Iran has denied any agreement exists. For traders, buying YES shares at 49.3¢ offers a 2.56x return if the contract resolves positively. That payout depends entirely on concrete diplomatic developments within two weeks.
Watch for announcements from the Islamabad talks or direct statements from the IAEA or Iranian state media. Either could move these contracts sharply in either direction.
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