Trump’s efforts to reunify Libya face setbacks amid violence

The Trump administration’s push to reunify Libya is hitting serious turbulence. Violent incidents have disrupted what had appeared to be genuine momentum toward bringing together the war-torn OPEC member’s rival governments for the first time in over a decade.

The effort, spearheaded by senior adviser Massad Boulos, had produced some real results earlier this year. Now the question is whether those gains can survive the kind of instability that has defined Libya since Muammar Gaddafi’s fall in 2011.

The deal and the dealmaker

Boulos has been running point on Libya mediation since at least 2025. His approach has been quintessentially transactional: broker power-sharing arrangements between the two main factions, then dangle commercial incentives to make the peace stick.

Those two factions are Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces, which control the east, and Abdulhamid Dbeibah’s Government of National Unity based in the west. They’ve been locked in a standoff that has, at various points since 2014, erupted into full-scale civil war.

On April 11, 2026, Libya approved its first unified national budget since 2013, worth approximately 190 billion Libyan dinars, or roughly $30 billion. The same month saw the first US-sponsored Flintlock military exercises conducted on Libyan soil, involving forces from both the GNU and LAAF.

In June 2026, Boulos hosted Saddam Haftar, a leader of the eastern forces and son of Khalifa Haftar, in Washington to deepen US engagement in the peace process.

Oil is the glue, and the prize

Libya sits on Africa’s largest proven crude reserves, but years of conflict have kept production well below its potential. A $20 billion production improvement agreement involving ConocoPhillips and TotalEnergies was reported earlier in 2026, aimed at boosting Libya’s output capacity. Chevron has also been part of discussions around expanding US investment in the country’s energy sector.

Why the cracks are showing

Libya has not held elections since a ceasefire was established in 2020, and the underlying political fragmentation runs far deeper than a budget agreement can fix.

Analysts have flagged that the power-sharing framework essentially locks in existing power structures, handing legitimacy to figures who control territory through force rather than democratic mandate. Corruption remains endemic on both sides of the divide, and Libya’s institutional capacity has been hollowed out by years of conflict and patronage networks. Elite resistance from commanders, militia leaders, and political figures who benefit from the current fragmentation presents an additional obstacle to a unified state.

Recent commentary from July to early August 2026 underscores the stagnation in political momentum and the escalating risk of violence, emphasizing the precariousness of the situation despite ongoing diplomatic negotiations.

What to watch

The election question looms large. Libya’s last national vote was in 2014, and the absence of any electoral framework means the current arrangement rests entirely on deals between strongmen. Without a credible path to elections, the reunification effort risks becoming a permanently temporary arrangement.

Multiple outside powers, including Russia, Turkey, and the UAE, have invested heavily in backing their preferred Libyan factions, raising the geopolitical stakes of whether the US-led effort holds together.

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