Trump’s Second Term: Bitcoin, Oil, and Gold in the New Economic Era

Hedy Bi | OKG Research

At 1 AM Beijing time on January 21st, Donald Trump officially began his second term as the President of the United States. However, just two days before his inauguration, the market witnessed a globally captivating event: Trump launched a token called “TRUMP,” a meme coin with no technical foundation, entirely based on his personal brand. Within just a few hours, the market capitalization of this meme coin surged to nearly $8 billion. A successful narrative can generate consensus, and consensus is a crucial component of any market.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin, the founding cryptocurrency, has seen its market influence grow, raising the question: Is Bitcoin simply a “peer-to-peer electronic cash system” in today’s world? Whether it’s Trump suggesting Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve or countries already adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, Bitcoin is gradually emerging as one of the potential “global strategic assets.” Is this notion purely driven by Bitcoin’s fixed supply and scarcity? Maybe the history can help us to understand the underlying significance.

A look back through history shows that energy resources and precious metals have long been central to national economic security. The 1973 oil crisis forced the U.S. to establish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), ensuring the country could secure energy in case of disruptions to the supply chain. To this day, the U.S. remains one of the world’s leading oil reserve holders, maintaining around 700 million barrels in strategic reserves, representing approximately 15% of the global total.

Gold represents an even older form of strategic reserve. Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, while the U.S. dollar decoupled from gold, gold’s role remained irreplaceable. As a symbol of wealth and credit, gold continues to be a primary reserve asset for central banks worldwide. The U.S. currently holds approximately 8,133 tons of gold, accounting for 23% of the global total, bolstering the stability and credibility of its financial system and further strengthening its core role in the global credit system.

These two assets have become strategic reserves not just because of their physical properties (scarcity and utility), but because they embody the core trust of the economic order: oil is the lifeblood of industry, and gold is the final line of defense for monetary systems.

In traditional economies, national strategic reserves have largely relied on physical assets like oil and gold, whose value is closely tied to scarcity, utility, and market demand. However, with technological advancements and growing globalization, the limitations of physical assets have become more apparent. According to the latest data from the World Gold Council, gold saw a net outflow of $48.65 billion in 2023.

This raises an important question: What characteristics should a new generation of national strategic reserves have in the technological age? Do these reserves still need to be confined to physical assets?

The demand for “trust” in the technological age has undergone profound changes. Traditional trust systems relied on government, banks, or other central authorities, whereas Bitcoin introduces a decentralized trust mechanism — one that does not depend on a single institution or government, but rather on the collective recognition and maintenance of value by millions of global participants. This decentralization allows Bitcoin to break through geographic and political boundaries, transcending the limitations of traditional physical assets, and facilitating globalized value storage and exchange.

Unlike Trump Coin ($TRUMP), which is a meme coin with no technical foundation and represents a fan-driven economy, Bitcoin offers a valuable lesson. The rapid market response to $TRUMP highlights the growing influence of shared consensus — whether driven by fans, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), or, more importantly, the consensus built on mathematics, algorithms, and open, transparent ledgers. Like Bitcoin’s original design, as long as people globally use it and trust the algorithmic consensus and its transparent ledger, it will hold value.

Compared to physical assets, Bitcoin carries the scarcity and value storage properties of gold, while also possessing the global circulation potential of oil. More importantly, unlike oil or gold, Bitcoin’s value does not rely on a single country or institution; rather, it is constructed through the beliefs of a decentralized, global network of participants. The industry has observed Bitcoin’s evolution from a “decentralized technology experiment” to a “global strategic asset.”

This borderless, globalized foundation of trust represents the new essence of national strategic reserves in the technological age. It also signals a broader societal exploration of new trust systems for the future.

Looking at the U.S.’s current strategic reserve setup, its heavy focus on oil and gold reflects its pursuit of global economic dominance. Currently, the U.S. holds 23% of the world’s gold reserves and 15% of global oil reserves, demonstrating its high level of control over global financial and energy systems.

While the U.S. government has not yet announced direct holdings of Bitcoin as part of its strategic reserve, private-sector involvement in the Bitcoin ecosystem is rapidly becoming a focal point of global attention. Major U.S. companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy, for example, have publicly held Bitcoin, while some U.S. states such as Pennsylvania are considering building Bitcoin reserves. U.S. investors, meanwhile, are increasingly gaining exposure to Bitcoin via trust funds and ETFs.

According to OKG Research’s estimates as of January 20th, the U.S. public sector holds about 1% of global Bitcoin, while private sector holdings account for roughly 9% (with data from decentralized and centralized exchanges not fully counted due to a lack of IP address data). This brings total U.S. Bitcoin holdings to approximately 10%, with 90% of it concentrated in the private sector. Furthermore, the private sector’s Bitcoin accumulation continues to grow. BlackRock has pointed out that rising fiscal deficits and debt pressures make Bitcoin an increasingly attractive alternative reserve asset, particularly among institutional investors. Compared to oil and gold, there is still significant room for growth in the public sector’s Bitcoin holdings.

Regardless of how Bitcoin and other crypto assets are incorporated into national reserves, this issue is not merely about quantity. It is a matter of how countries navigate the evolving landscape of global financial systems in the technological age.