Trump says Iran deal not fully negotiated yet

## Market Snapshot

Near-term US-Iran agreement markets have repriced sharply lower. The May 26 sub-market sits at 18.5% YES (down from 60% 24 hours ago), while the June 7 sub-market holds at 65.5% YES, down from 69%.

## Key Takeaways

– Pricing appears consistent with markets interpreting Trump’s statement as a concrete obstacle to any imminent agreement announcement. – The steep drop across May 24–26 sub-markets suggests participants view a deal within days as unlikely, while the June 7 window retains meaningful probability. – The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market (June 30) appears modestly affected, consistent with US mediation remaining a key prerequisite.

## Article Body

President Donald Trump stated publicly on May 24 that any agreement with Iran remains incomplete and has not been fully negotiated. The remarks, reported by Middle East Eye, follow a Fox News report from a senior US administration official earlier the same day indicating a deal would not be signed that day, though progress was described as ongoing. Trump’s direct admission contrasts with a Jerusalem Post report suggesting a potential 60-day framework involving the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remain the principal negotiating figures. No confirmed meeting date has been announced.

## Market Interpretation

Trump’s on-record statement is high-impact for near-term sub-markets and appears supportive of NO outcomes through May 26. The June 7 market, retaining 65.5% YES, suggests participants view a catalyst as more plausible within the broader two-week window. The Israel-Iran peace deal market’s modest downward move is consistent with the view that US-Iran progress is a prerequisite for any wider regional settlement.

## What to Watch

Watch for any White House or Iranian Foreign Ministry statement confirming or denying a resumed negotiating session. Steve Witkoff’s travel schedule and any Omani or Pakistani diplomatic activity may indicate whether talks are advancing. The May 26–June 7 price gap of 47 points reflects significant uncertainty concentrated in that window.

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Israel-Iran permanent peace deal bearish

17% FLAT