Trump says Iran is seeking a deal and the war could end soon

President Donald Trump said on September 9, 2026, that Iran is actively seeking negotiations with the United States and that the ongoing war could conclude before or immediately after the November 3 midterm elections. Trump framed Iran’s outreach not as strength but as desperation, suggesting the country is struggling to sustain military and economic pressure simultaneously. He described Iran as calling constantly, while making clear that a negotiated settlement is not his preferred outcome, even as he acknowledged it remains on the table.

A war that started in February and hasn’t stopped since

The conflict began in late February 2026 with coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. Since then, the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a substantial share of the world’s oil passes, has been repeatedly disrupted, sending energy markets into a prolonged period of volatility.

Gasoline prices are currently averaging around $4.22 per gallon nationally, with diesel approaching record highs near $6. A brief attempt at de-escalation came in June 2026, when the two sides signed an interim memorandum of understanding. The MOU aimed to pause large-scale hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and allow limited Iranian oil exports to resume. The truce collapsed quickly, and the energy market disruptions that had temporarily eased returned.

The midterms are the backdrop to everything

Trump’s explicit connection of the war’s endpoint to the midterm election calendar is unusual and politically significant. He forecast that oil prices could drop well below current levels once hostilities cease, describing a scenario where prices could fall below $2 per gallon. Trump’s approval ratings are at their lowest point since taking office, a slide that Republican officials have attributed partly to the economic strain the conflict has created.

Trump suggested Iran’s outreach is partly motivated by a desire to shape the midterm results. The administration has also floated the idea of longer-term U.S. involvement in Iran modeled loosely on the approach used in Venezuela, where Washington has used economic leverage and selective engagement to protect energy interests.

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