Trump sends envoys to Pakistan for talks with Iran’s foreign minister

Trump has dispatched envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for discussions with Iran’s Foreign Minister. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 9.5% YES.

The envoy news hasn’t moved the April 30 market much. It’s at 9.5% YES, down slightly from 10% a day ago. With only 6 days left on the contract, traders are skeptical about a quick breakthrough. The bigger signal is in the May 31 market, at 37.5% YES, and the June 30 market at 52.5% YES, where traders see a better than even chance of a deal within two months.

US-Iran peace deal markets saw $854,588 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The most notable movement was a 6-point spike in the April 30 market at 11:14 AM, suggesting some traders are positioning for a surprise. Order book depth indicates it would take $27,667 to move the April 30 market by 5 points, so pricing is relatively stable despite the diplomatic activity.

CNN confirmed the diplomatic engagement through administration officials. The flat April 30 odds suggest traders don’t believe this round of talks will produce a rapid resolution. A YES share for April 30 at 10¢ offers a 10x return, but that requires a deal materializing in under a week.

Watch for official statements from the Pakistan talks, any shifts in Trump’s public stance, or announcements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. These are the most likely catalysts for movement in the odds.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.