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President Donald Trump has signed the Lindsey Graham Act, extending U.S. sanctions on Iran until 2031 and expanding sanctions on Russia. The legislation combines measures targeting Iran’s energy and weapons sectors with new economic pressures on Russia, particularly concerning its oil and gas exports. This move reinforces the U.S.’s firm stance against both nations, reflecting a continuation of the broader sanctions campaign against Iran and a strategic response to Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The extension is seen as a significant step in maintaining pressure on Iran, potentially impacting diplomatic negotiations for a future U.S.-Iran deal.
Key Takeaways
- The extension of sanctions on Iran appears to decrease the likelihood of reconstruction funding being included in any U.S.-Iran deal in 2026, as market pricing suggests a hardening U.S. stance.
- Current market odds for Iran reconstruction funding in a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026 have shown a slight increase but remain low, indicating skepticism about a deal’s prospects.
- The signing of the act indicates an escalatory economic strategy by the U.S. rather than a military one, suggesting a focus on economic leverage over direct conflict.
What to Watch
Markets will closely monitor any diplomatic moves by Iran or the U.S. that could suggest a shift towards negotiations despite the extended sanctions. Key indicators include statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and U.S. Chief Negotiator Mike Vance, as well as any involvement by mediators from Qatar and Pakistan. Developments such as a joint statement on uranium enrichment or the release of Iranian assets could support a YES scenario in markets, while new military actions or increased uranium enrichment reports would likely support NO outcomes.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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