Trump suggests US could maintain presence in Iran for oil access

President Donald Trump floated the idea of keeping a US presence in Iran to secure access to the country’s oil reserves, drawing an explicit parallel to Washington’s recent arrangement in Venezuela. The comments, made during a trip to Doonbeg, Ireland on September 13, came as Middle East tensions continue to rattle energy markets already on edge from a recent attack on a Saudi pipeline.

Trump pointed to an August 2026 agreement in which the US secured control over roughly 20% of Venezuela’s oil reserves, claiming the deal had financially offset war-related expenses “multiple times over.” The implication was clear: what worked in Caracas could work in Tehran.

The Venezuela blueprint

Iran’s oil infrastructure makes it a particularly high-value target for this kind of approach. Kharg Island alone handles approximately 90% of the country’s crude exports, making it one of the most strategically significant energy chokepoints on the planet.

Trump also offered a loose timeline for the Iran conflict, suggesting fighting could wrap up by the end of 2026. He noted this could come after the US midterm elections.

On the consumer side, Trump predicted that gasoline prices would “drop like a rock” once hostilities end.

Oil markets already feeling the heat

A recent attack on a Saudi pipeline has added fresh volatility to crude prices, reminding traders that Middle East energy infrastructure remains a perpetual target.

What this means for markets and policy

The midterm election timeline Trump referenced adds another layer of uncertainty. If the administration is genuinely targeting a resolution before or shortly after November, that creates a narrow window during which policy decisions could accelerate rapidly.

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