3 hours ago
15
President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if negotiations fail, pushing the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown market to 99.6% YES, up from 8% twenty-four hours ago.
The ceasefire market for April 21 spiked 3 points at 11:12 AM. The permanent peace deal market for April 22 fell to 23.5% YES from a high of 40% yesterday as traders priced in a higher chance of diplomatic failure.
Trump’s threats also moved the market for agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief, which dropped to 48% YES. That market’s largest move was a 6-point drop at 9:40 PM.
The ceasefire market has $3,485 in daily USDC volume and $498 in order book depth, thin enough that a single large order could move the price meaningfully. The peace deal market is far more liquid at $610,678 in daily USDC traded, making it harder for individual trades to shift the odds.
At 18¢, a YES share on the ceasefire market pays $1 if the ceasefire is declared broken by April 21, a 5.5x return. That payout prices in a low probability of imminent military escalation, even as Trump’s rhetoric points the other direction. The gap between the threat and the odds is the trade.
Watch for Pakistan’s mediation efforts and any statements from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. A confirmed breach or continuation of the ceasefire will move these markets sharply.
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