Trump to host Israel-Lebanon peace talks before ceasefire expires Thursday

The Trump administration will host a second round of peace talks between Israel and Lebanon this Thursday, days before a temporary ceasefire expires. The market for “Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30” sits at 100% YES.

The decision to hold talks at the State Department has kept market odds fixed at 100% YES. Volume is zero, meaning no new trades have moved this market since the announcement.

Separately, the market for diplomatic meetings with Iran trades at 2.1% YES, down from 8% just 24 hours ago, with $1,465 in daily USDC volume. The drop shows growing skepticism about any near-term U.S.-Iran diplomatic contact.

The ceasefire market’s zero volume means traders see no edge at current prices. On the Iran diplomacy side, the order book is thin: roughly $2,542 could shift odds by 5 points, making it vulnerable to strategic positioning.

For traders, buying YES on the ceasefire at 100¢ offers no upside. The Iran diplomacy market is more interesting: a NO position at 98¢ carries modest potential given the collapsing odds and thin liquidity.

Thursday’s talks at the State Department are the next event to watch. Any public endorsement or unexpected shift in tone from Trump or State Department officials could create movement, particularly in adjacent diplomatic markets.

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