Trump warns oil prices may remain high until after US midterms

President Trump told reporters on September 9 that Americans should expect oil and gas prices to stay elevated through the November midterm elections, attributing the sustained pressure to the US-Iran conflict that has roiled energy markets for most of 2026.

Speaking before departing for Texas and the Republican Party’s midterm convention, Trump predicted that prices would “tumble downward” once the elections are behind us.

The numbers behind the pain

Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel on the same day Trump made his remarks. The national average gasoline price sat at $4.22 per gallon, a figure that has become frustratingly familiar to American drivers.

Gas prices have exceeded $4 per gallon frequently throughout 2026. At the worst point of the conflict, WTI crude surged above $112 per barrel.

The US-Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, has repeatedly disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow waterway handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Houthi attacks on shipping routes have compounded the problem, adding another layer of risk premium to every barrel moving through the region.

A political problem dressed up as an energy crisis

The administration has not been idle. Trump has engaged directly with major refiners and fuel retailers to try to ease the burden on consumers.

For voters, the math is simple. A family driving 1,000 miles per month in a vehicle averaging 25 miles per gallon is spending roughly $169 per month on gas at current prices.

What markets are watching

A reopening of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic could pull Brent crude back toward the $70-$80 range relatively quickly, given that non-conflict fundamentals don’t support triple-digit oil.

The sustained period of elevated energy costs has broader economic implications beyond the pump. Higher fuel prices feed into transportation and logistics costs, which ripple into consumer goods pricing. Major oil producers tend to post outsized earnings when crude stays above $90.

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