The Federal Reserve’s latest Summary of Economic Projections shows core PCE inflation projected at 3.3% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027.
The numbers tell a stubborn story
April 2026’s core PCE reading came in at 3.3% year-over-year, released on May 28. That was a tick higher than March’s 3.2% figure.
Headline PCE, which includes food and energy categories, was running around 3.8% in April.
For context, core PCE was hovering near 2.8% at the start of 2024. The move to 3.3% represents a reversal that complicates assumptions about rate cuts, consumer spending, and portfolio positioning.
Trump’s platform as economic megaphone
In June 2026, following a strong jobs report, Trump posted on Truth Social to counter rising inflation fears.
What this means for crypto and broader markets
Bitcoin prices held above $62,500 in reaction to one of Trump’s Truth Social posts.
The gap between the current 3.3% core PCE reading and the Fed’s 2% target represents roughly 130 basis points of work that needs to happen through either tighter policy, slower demand, or some combination.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

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