3 hours ago
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Turkey and Pakistan are in discussions about ceasefire talks linked to US-Iran negotiations, with the probability of extending the US-Iran ceasefire at 15% YES.
The odds for an Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 are at 2.6% YES, down from 3% yesterday. The June 30 odds are at 13.5% YES, down from 19% a day ago. Traders don’t expect a permanent deal soon but see a possible catalyst before June. The two-week ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan and supported by Turkey have introduced some optimism, though not enough to drive a meaningful market shift.
The market for a US-Iran ceasefire extension shows no recorded trades, suggesting traders are waiting for concrete developments. Turkey and Pakistan’s involvement could raise the chance of a ceasefire extension, particularly with the current ceasefire nearing expiration without a final deal in place.
The Israel-Iran market is thin. Actual USDC volume over the last 24 hours is $3,004, despite a face value volume of $42,381. It takes only $322 to move the April 30 contract odds by 5 points, which makes the market vulnerable to large orders. The biggest move was a 2-point spike yesterday evening, pointing to brief, concentrated interest.
The discussions point toward de-escalation, though the source tier suggests limited impact without concrete outcomes. At 2.6¢, a YES share for the April 30 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 38.5x return. That bet requires a rapid diplomatic breakthrough within days.
Watch for statements from Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif or announcements from the ongoing talks. A public expression of confidence from key actors could move these markets sharply.
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