Two tankers carrying saudi oil for India exit red sea by going ‘dark’

Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude destined for India have reportedly exited the Red Sea under secrecy, turning off their AIS transponders to avoid detection. This development comes amid heightened tensions involving Yemen’s Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia, with potential implications for commercial shipping routes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The decision to go “dark” aligns with strategies often employed when there is an increased risk of maritime threat or interdiction. The move has sparked further concerns about the security of vital shipping lanes, which are essential for the transportation of oil from the Middle East to markets in Asia.

This incident is part of the broader Red Sea shipping crisis, where recent threats from the Houthi movement have already prompted vessels to alter their courses. The ongoing situation has particularly affected Saudi-linked shipping, with implications for countries like India that rely on these routes for oil imports. The “going dark” tactic by the tankers is indicative of a significant elevation in perceived threat levels, potentially impacting shipping costs and timelines.

Markets tracking the potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have shown fluctuating odds, with the recent tanker behavior appearing to support scenarios where disruption could escalate. The latest data reflects a moderate increase in the likelihood of closure by September 30, though the market remains tentative about immediate impacts.

Key Takeaways

• The action of tankers going “dark” suggests elevated security concerns in the Red Sea, consistent with increased closure risk for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
• Market pricing currently indicates a 17% probability that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed by September 30, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
• The ongoing Houthi threats and subsequent rerouting of vessels appear consistent with prolonged shipping disruptions in the region.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor official communications from key actors such as the Houthi leadership, the U.S. Navy, and commercial shipping operators. Any announcements of escalated military activities or further disruptions in the Red Sea could influence market perceptions of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait’s security. Additionally, updates from maritime security reporting organizations, like the UKMTO, could provide further insights into the evolving threat landscape in the region.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.