3 hours ago
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UK authorities raided unregistered peer-to-peer crypto trading sites in London, but the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April moved in the opposite direction: it now sits at 78.5% YES, up from 44% just a day ago.
The operation involved the FCA, HMRC, and SWROCU targeting illegal peer-to-peer trading operations, increasing regulatory scrutiny on crypto activity in the UK. The Bitcoin $80,000 contract surged on broader bullish sentiment, though the enforcement action could create headwinds. The $150,000 target contract is flat at 0.1% YES, unchanged from a week ago.
The $80,000 market jumped 5 points at 8:48 AM, moving from 46% to 50%, with $105,235 in daily USDC volume. Moving the odds 5 points requires $24,792, which points to a relatively deep book. The $150,000 market trades just $328 in daily USDC, making it thin enough that small bets can move the price.
The crackdown means higher compliance costs and more regulatory uncertainty for UK-based crypto participants, which could discourage both institutional and retail activity. At 78¢, YES shares pay $1 if Bitcoin hits $80,000 by month’s end, a 1.27x return. That price implies the market thinks bullish momentum is strong enough to override regulatory friction.
Further FCA announcements or new enforcement actions are the main catalysts to watch. New regulations targeting crypto exchanges or peer-to-peer platforms could shift these odds quickly.
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