US and Iran signal nearing deal on Strait of Hormuz shipping access

The United States and Iran appear to be closing in on an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to regular commercial shipping, a development that could reshape global energy markets after months of near-total disruption to one of the planet’s most vital maritime corridors.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said discussions with Oman, which controls the strait’s southern shore, have reached the “final stage,” with preliminary agreements on shipping lane coordinates already in place. President Donald Trump, speaking on August 5, said he expected a deal could be finalized by mid-week.

From 130 ships a day to eight

The scale of the disruption is staggering. Before hostilities began in February 2026, following US and Israeli military actions against Iran, roughly 130 commercial vessels transited the strait daily. That number has since cratered to as few as eight.

To put that in perspective, roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply previously flowed through this 21-mile-wide waterway between Iran and Oman.

The framework on the table

The current negotiations trace back to a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17, 2026. That MOU proposed a temporary 60-day toll-free reopening of the strait, paired with a ceasefire and further dialogue on Iran’s nuclear program.

The route arrangements under discussion would split responsibilities in a way that reflects geographic reality. Iran would manage inbound traffic through waters closer to its coast, while Oman would supervise outbound navigation on the southern side. Both countries would share maritime security duties, and the deal may include provisions for service fees, essentially tolls for using the strait.

On the American side, the deal would presumably involve lifting, or at least easing, the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly expressed optimism about the outcome.

But optimism and a signed agreement are two very different things. Washington insists on unrestricted freedom of navigation, a principle the US Navy has enforced in the Persian Gulf for decades. Iran demands sovereignty rights over its territorial waters, which extend into the strait’s navigable channels.

What to watch next

Trump’s mid-week timeline is ambitious, to say the least. Even if both sides agree on the mechanics of shipping lane management and security patrols, the deal has to navigate a thicket of existing US trade sanctions on Iran. Any arrangement that involves Iranian port operations or fee collection will need to be structured carefully to avoid running afoul of sanctions frameworks that Congress has shown little appetite to relax.

The June MOU explicitly linked the strait reopening to broader dialogue on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If that linkage holds, the shipping deal becomes hostage to one of the most intractable diplomatic puzzles of the past two decades.

For global energy markets, even a temporary reopening would provide significant relief. Restoring even a fraction of the strait’s normal 130-vessel daily throughput would ease supply pressures and could put meaningful downward pressure on oil prices that have been elevated since February.

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