3 hours ago
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Trump says the US and Iran will work together to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 now sits at 51.5% YES, up from 35% just 24 hours ago.
The mine removal collaboration and Trump’s comments on uranium recovery have pushed the April 30 uranium enrichment market higher. Daily volume is $23,824 in USDC, and only $599 is needed to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning the order book is thin enough for individual traders to shift the price. The Trump’s Hormuz blockade market holds at 90.5% YES, even though Trump has said the blockade stays until an agreement is reached.
The permanent peace deal by April 22 market has also ticked up to 37.5% YES. The move is small but comes ahead of possible further talks this weekend. Trump’s references to uranium recovery and long-term cooperation point toward a more diplomatic track.
Why it matters: Trump described the pace of talks as “leisurely,” which suggests no immediate deadline pressure. At 51.5%, YES shares pay 2.55x if a deal is struck by April 30. But with $599 enough to swing the price 5 points, the thin order book makes this market vulnerable to sharp moves that don’t reflect new information.
What to watch: Any statements from Trump or Iranian officials after the weekend. Specific commitments on uranium recovery timelines or mine clearance schedules would likely move these markets fast.
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