3 hours ago
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The U.S. and Israel’s assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientists has added instability to an already volatile situation. Odds for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 now sit at 28.1% YES, up from 22% a week ago.
The targeted killing of scientists like Fereydoon Abbasi and Seyyed Amir Hossein Feghhi has traders reassessing Iran’s nuclear resolve. The June 30 market has climbed to 39% YES, a 6-point increase over the past week. December 31 odds for uranium surrender by year-end have also jumped to 50% YES.
The largest move over the past week occurred in the April 30 market, with a 3-point drop from 36% to 33% at 8:21 AM. Traders appear less convinced Iran will agree to terms imminently. Daily volume is $50,725 in USDC, and the order book requires $14,740 to shift the market 5 percentage points — liquid, but still susceptible to large orders.
The risk now goes beyond the immediate loss of expertise. If Iranian scientists begin selling their knowledge out of fear, that could destabilize regional security further. A YES share at 28.1¢ pays $1 if Iran surrenders its stockpile by April 30, a 3.85x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe rapid diplomatic breakthroughs are possible within 10 days.
Watch for shifts in Iranian leadership signals or new U.S.-Israel military actions. Mojtaba Khamenei’s next move or IRGC statements will directly affect the trajectory of these markets.
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